2026 Starts Worse Than 2025: Canada's Housing Market Hits a Breaking Point
February 2026 data is in — and Canada’s housing market is not off to a good start. National home sales are running 16.2% below a year ago, over 8% lower than February 2025, bringing activity to levels not seen since 2009. Despite improving affordability (falling prices, lower rates, rising wages), buyer confidence is being crushed by trade-war uncertainty, inflation risk, and a weakening job market. In this CREI Clip, Daniel Foch and Nick Hill break down exactly what the February numbers mean — and why the “weather excuse” doesn’t hold up this time.
The Math Has Improved But The Sentiment Hasn’t | EP. 391 | Listen to the full episode:
Here’s what Daniel Foch and Nick Hill cover in this week’s clip — and why every number tells a story of a market that’s technically getting more affordable but emotionally getting harder to enter.
🏠 Sales Are at Historic Lows
February 2026 saw national home sales drop 16.2% year-over-year, and over 8% below February 2025. These are 2009-level numbers — comparable to the depths of the global financial crisis and the early 1990s downturn. The 10-year moving average has flatlined, and we’re now below it.
📉 The Chart Says It All
Monthly home sales peaked at nearly 65,000 units in early 2021. Today, we’re hovering near 36,000–38,000 — a level that should be triggering alarm bells across the industry. And yet, new listings also fell 4%, leaving a 47.6% sales-to-new-listings ratio — a buyer’s market, but one with fewer buyers participating.
😟 Sentiment Is the Real Problem
Affordability has genuinely improved: prices are down, rates have dropped, and wages have risen. So why aren’t buyers moving? The answer is confidence. Tariff threats, trade-war anxiety, oil-driven inflation fears, and a labor market that shed 84,000 jobs in February (pushing unemployment to 6.7%) have eroded the willingness to commit. Mortgage arrears are rising — particularly in Toronto and Vancouver.
🗺️ Regional Divergence Is Stark
Not all markets are struggling equally. Ontario and B.C. are dragging the national numbers down significantly. Meanwhile, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Atlantic Canada are showing relative resilience — firmer prices and more stable activity. The “Canada” number masks two very different realities.
🌦️ The Weather Excuse Doesn’t Hold
Every February, bears are blamed on bad weather. Daniel and Nick debunk this cleanly: month-over-month sales actually dipped — a statistical rarity that can’t be explained by snowfall. This is a confidence-driven slowdown, full stop.