$56 Billion Looking for a Home: What CBRE's 2026 Outlook Means for Canadian Real Estate
Where should Canadian real estate investors put their money in 2026? CBRE's 42-page outlook has answers — and some surprises.
The Big Picture: $56 Billion Looking for a Home
Canadian commercial real estate investment could hit $56 billion in 2026, according to CBRE's outlook — a massive rebound after volumes were cut in half during the slowdown. That's not just a recovery; it's a signal that capital is ready to move again.
But where it goes matters more than how much. Here's what the data actually says for investors.
Listen to Episode 391: Where To Put Your Money In 2026
Daniel and Nick break down the entire CBRE 42-page outlook — every sector, every major market, and what it means for your portfolio.
Office: The Surprise Story
This is the one nobody expected. Net absorption is running at double the 20-year average. No new supply expected until 2030. Investment volumes are rebounding.
The narrative has been "office is dead" — but CBRE's numbers tell a different story. Vacancies are high, yes, but the buildings that matter (Class A, transit-connected, amenity-rich) are tightening. The flight to quality is creating a two-tier market where the good stuff holds value and everything else gets punished.
Multifamily: Transition Year
Rising vacancy rates are the headline, but the nuance matters more. Purpose-built rental starts are stalling just as demand is shifting. The CMHC data backs this up — construction starts collapsing while the units we need aren't getting built.
Seniors housing is CBRE's contrarian pick — rising demand, constrained supply, and an aging demographic that's only accelerating. If you're looking for a sector where fundamentals align, this is one to watch.
Industrial: Finding the Floor
After the pandemic boom, industrial is normalizing. Vacancy is up from record lows but still historically tight. Rents are flattening, not falling. The sector isn't breaking — it's just finding its new equilibrium after two years of unsustainable growth.
Retail: Quietly Resilient
Everyone wrote retail off years ago. But CBRE shows it continuing to deliver steady performance. Grocery-anchored and necessity retail are the backbone, and urban format continues to absorb space. The "retail is dead" narrative was premature — again.
City Spotlights
Toronto: Still the capital of Canadian CRE. Office absorption surprising to the upside, multifamily supply pipeline the deepest in the country, industrial holding steady.
Vancouver: The affordability crunch is pushing demand east. Industrial land is scarce. Multifamily vacancy creeping up but still tight by national standards.
Calgary: The turnaround story. Office vacancy dropping, population growth fueling demand, industrial still has legs.
Sleeper picks: Halifax (military and immigration demand), Ottawa (stability play), Saskatoon (resource cycle upside).
What This Means for Investors
The $56B question isn't whether capital returns to Canadian CRE — it's already happening. The question is where it lands.
Office contrarians have a window, but only in the right assets
Multifamily investors need to underwrite for higher vacancy and longer lease-up
Industrial has repriced — opportunity is in niche logistics, not big-box
Seniors housing is the quiet play nobody's talking about
Retail remains a cash flow business — don't overthink it
Listen to Episode 390: The Homes We're Not Building Will Haunt Us In The Future
Construction starts are collapsing, developers are pulling back, and the supply gap keeps compounding. Nick and Dan dig into the CMHC data with Mathieu Laberge.
Key Data Points from CBRE 2026 Outlook
$56B in expected CRE investment volume for 2026
Office net absorption at 2x the 20-year average
No new office supply expected until 2030
Multifamily vacancy rising — transition year ahead
Seniors housing: compelling contrarian opportunity
Industrial finding its floor after pandemic-era surge
GDP growth slowing, BoC holding at 2.25%
CUSMA review in July creating policy uncertainty
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