“Real estate always goes up” is not really a forecast. It is a coping mechanism.
It was also pretty convincing for a long time. Falling rates, rising prices and a growing population could make mediocre decisions look smart. Buy almost anything, wait, refinance, repeat. The market covered a lot of mistakes.
That version of Canadian real estate is gone, at least for now. The problem is that much of the advice survived it.
In this episode, Nick and I worked through ten real estate myths that are still doing damage. Most are not pure fiction. They are expired truths: rules that once worked often enough to become slogans, then stayed in circulation after the conditions changed.
The useful question is not whether renting is “throwing money away,” fixed mortgages are “safer,” or now is a “bad time” to buy. It is whether the claim survives contact with the actual property, financing and timeline in front of you.
Renting can be cheaper. That does not automatically make the renter richer.
The rent-versus-own argument is usually staged as a morality play. Owners are responsible adults building wealth. Renters are paying someone else’s mortgage. Neither is analysis.
The episode cites a Zoocasa comparison that modelled a 25-year mortgage at 3.89% with 20% down. In Vancouver, the estimated monthly cost of owning exceeded renting by $2,011. The gap was $2,240 in Oakville and $1,957 in Surrey. Regina and Winnipeg were the exceptions in the sample, where buying came out modestly cheaper.
Those numbers do not prove that renting is better. They show that the carrying cost can be very different from the rent on comparable shelter.
The renter only captures that advantage if the difference is actually saved or invested. The owner gets a forced savings mechanism through principal repayment. A renter who saves $2,000 a month has a strategy. A renter who spends it has cheaper housing and no growing asset.
Owners also need to stop pretending every payment builds equity. Interest, property tax, condo fees, maintenance, insurance and transaction costs are consumption too. Compare the full cost of equivalent housing, then decide what the flexibility, control and forced savings are worth to you.
“Always goes up” failed a very ordinary stress test
The national benchmark used in the episode fell from roughly $841,300 in March 2022 to $664,400 in March 2026. That is a 21% nominal decline. Adjust for inflation and the loss is closer to 28% in real terms.
Four years is not forever. It is still long enough to matter if you bought with 5% down, planned to move, needed to refinance or signed a pre-construction contract at the peak.
Pre-construction made the same myth more dangerous because buyers committed to tomorrow’s financing at yesterday’s price. A unit that appraises below the contract price does not create a philosophical disagreement. It creates a cheque you need to write at closing. Lower prices, higher mortgage rates and stalled assignment markets can arrive together.
None of this means real estate cannot appreciate over a long holding period. It means appreciation is not guaranteed on your schedule. A plan that works only if the market rescues it is not much of a plan.
Twenty per cent down is not the rule. It is one financing choice.
Canadian buyers repeat “you need 20%” because 20% avoids mortgage default insurance. That is different from saying it is the minimum.
CMHC’s current rules allow a 5% minimum on the first $500,000 and 10% on the portion above it for eligible homes below $1.5 million. The cap was raised in December 2024, and 30-year insured amortizations became available to first-time buyers and buyers of new builds.
Lower down payments can get a qualified buyer into the market sooner. They also mean a larger mortgage, an insurance premium and a thinner equity cushion. The question is not whether 5% is “good” or 20% is “responsible.” It is what the smaller down payment does to the payment, cash reserves and ability to survive a price decline.
The same distinction applies to fixed and variable mortgages. A widely cited Moshe Milevsky study found variable borrowers came out ahead most of the time between 1950 and 2000. That history overlapped with a long disinflationary decline in rates. Borrowers in 2022 and 2023 learned quickly that an average is not a promise.
Fixed can buy payment certainty. Variable can offer flexibility and a lower expected cost. “Safer” and “cheaper” are separate claims. Pick the risk you can carry, not the product that won the last argument online.
The big-city investor premium stopped paying the bills
Toronto condo investing carried its own folk wisdom: buy near transit, accept weak cash flow, let appreciation do the work.
Then financing costs reset.
A CIBC and Urbanation analysis found that 81% of leveraged investors in newly completed GTA condos were cash-flow negative in the first half of 2024. Investors who closed in 2023 were short an average of $597 per month. Average rent on those units was nearly $2,700 while average monthly ownership costs approached $3,250.
That is not a rounding error. It is $7,164 a year before a special assessment, vacancy or repair.
Some investors can carry negative cash flow because they have high incomes, long timelines and a clear reason to expect the economics to improve. Others are simply subsidizing a tenant while hoping the resale market bails them out. Those are not the same strategy.
The profit on a property is heavily shaped when you buy: price, financing, renovation budget, realistic rent and the problems you did not ignore. Sale price gets the attention because it arrives as one big number. The monthly bleed is quieter.
Policy headlines do not erase market structure
The foreign-buyer ban was sold as an affordability intervention. Foreign participation was already a small share of transactions in most markets. Removing a small slice of demand does not repair a chronic shortage of homes, infrastructure delays or construction economics that no longer pencil.
Meanwhile, the “Bank of Mom and Dad” is not a side story. The episode cites CIBC research finding that 31% of first-time buyers received a family gift, averaging about $115,000. That makes family balance sheets part of the bidding process. It also widens the gap between households with similar incomes but very different access to capital.
You can dislike that reality. You still have to underwrite it.
A better filter than “Is now a good time?”
“Now” is not one market. A starter house in Calgary, a pre-construction condo in Toronto and a duplex in Moncton do not share an investment case merely because they are all Canadian real estate.
For a buyer, start with the likely holding period. If there is a real chance you will move within three years, transaction costs and price risk deserve more weight than a generic ownership goal.
For an investor, calculate the deal at today’s rent and today’s financing. Include property tax, insurance, maintenance, vacancy, management and condo fees where applicable. Appreciation can be an upside; it should not be the operating budget.
For a seller, the 2022 comparable is not a business plan. Compete with the inventory buyers can actually purchase today.
For an existing homeowner, run the renewal payment before the lender sends the letter. Know what happens if the rate is higher, the amortization needs to change or income is interrupted.
Good decisions can still be made in an awkward market. Bad ones can be made in a booming market. The market mood is less important than the spread between your assumptions and what the property can actually support.
The old rules were comfortable because they saved people from doing math. This market is charging for that convenience.
Watch or listen: Spotify episode
Sources and further reading: CMHC mortgage insurance rules, CIBC/Urbanation condo investment report, and CREA’s spring 2026 market review. Figures discussed in the episode reflect the cited study periods and are not forecasts.