What Kind Of Spring Market Will We Have?
CREA March data looked flat. The bond market told a different story.
The March Numbers Look Flat. The Story Underneath Does Not.
The CREA March 2026 release looked like a quiet month on the surface — sales down 0.1%, listings down 0.2%, prices drifting lower. But the headline masks what is actually happening.
A mid-March bond yield spike drove fixed mortgage rates up 30 basis points, threatening to freeze out first-time buyers during the most important sales window of the year. CREA and TD both revised their 2026 forecasts downward. The Bank of Canada is holding at 2.25%, but bond markets are pricing in uncertainty that lenders are already acting on.
The Real Story Is Regional Divergence
The concept of a "balanced market" is increasingly meaningless as a national average. What matters now is where you are looking:
Alberta — 3.2 months of inventory, prices rising, still the only province where momentum is holding
BC — 7.8 months of inventory, prices falling nearly 6% year-over-year
Ontario — caught between rising rates and falling prices, the most uncertain picture heading into spring
What 30 Basis Points Means for Buyers Right Now
When fixed rates moved up 30 basis points mid-March, it was not a theoretical shift — it was a real affordability hit at the worst possible time. For a $600,000 mortgage, that is roughly $100/month more in payments. For first-time buyers already stretching to the limit of qualification, it is often the difference between buying and waiting.
The CUSMA Factor Nobody Is Talking About
July 2026 brings a CUSMA review. While that is a trade agreement, the uncertainty alone tends to pause investment decisions. Combined with slower GDP and the Bank of Canada sitting on its hands at 2.25%, the second half of the year shapes up as a "wait and see" market.
What Investors Should Do Now
In Alberta — the window remains open. Calgary and Edmonton still offer the strongest fundamentals in the country
In BC — falling prices mean bargains are emerging, but 7.8 months of inventory means there is no rush
In Ontario — patience. The spring season is getting disrupted by rates, and the CUSMA review adds another layer of uncertainty
$56 billion in capital is looking for a home — the question is where it lands when the dust settles
Listen to the full episode below for the complete breakdown of the March data, what TD's revised forecast means, and where the real opportunities are heading into spring.